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Yesterday treasuries and mortgages sold off in a quick and ugly fashion, despite a lack of headlines or data. The stock market was hot, Asian interest in treasuries has waned, European treasuries were looking more attractive than our debt, etc.; these were all contributing factors to the selloff. But the truth was no one wanted to catch the proverbial “falling knife” until they were sure t
Since we are in the business of housing let us start with the economic updates for the housing industry. The Core Logic home price index rose 1.9% in March. This change represents the biggest year-over-year increase since March 2006 and the 13th consecutive monthly increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.9 perce
After a busy week of economic numbers , US Treasury prices have resumed their decent this morning after an unexpected increase in the April Retail Sales report.
US Retail Sales increase 0.1% versus a consensus estimate of a -0.3% dip. Any economic news that is good for the economy means the US Treasury prices go down and our mortgage rates usually go up .
PENDING HOME SALES - a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, rose 1.5% in March after a revised 1% decrease in February. On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales were 7% higher than March 2012.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index — on a non-seasonally adjusted basis — rose 0.3% in February after a 0.1% increase in January. On a year-over-year basis, when compared with February 2012, prices rose 9.3%, the largest annual gain since May 2006.
US Treasuries are selling off this morning after a stronger than expected employment report showed 165,000 new jobs were added last month versus a 150,000 consensus.
The unemployment rate dipped to 7.5% and there was a healthy upward revision to the prior month's levels. This week's busy calendar ends with the Factory Orders report and ISM Non-manufacturing index at 10 AM, followed by a couple of planned speeches by Fed representatives during the noon hour. Currently, the 10yr yield is at 1.700% and mortgages are roughly 0.375 worse in price from yesterday morning.
US Treasuries retreat from yesterday’s year highs after the initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 324k, from last week’s 342k, and much better than the market forecast for 346k.
Treasuries already started the hole in the morning after the ECB announced plans to cut its key interest rate to a record low. Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed to -$38.8B (-$42.4B expected) on weaker imports but exports showed signs of weakness, as well. Lastly, Nonfarm Productivity rebounded 0.7% after last month's dip but it was still below forecasts of a 1.3% increase. Tomorrow brings the much anticipated April Employment report which is expected to show roughly 135k jobs added last month. Currently, the 10yr Treasury yield is at 1.639% and mortgages are roughly an 0.125 worse in price from yesterday morning.
US Treasury 10 year yields have reached the lowest level of the year on hopes the Fed will reaffirm its QE3 position during today’s FOMC meeting. In addition the U.S. said it may start lowering the debt auction size, which would tighten supply on the market.
Economic data are heavy leading up to the FOMC rate decision at 2:00 pm EST. So far, the ADP Employment report showed weaker than expected job growth in April of +119k act versus +155k est. Meanwhile, the latest weekly MBA mortgage applications index showed a composite +1.8% gain. Refinance activity ticked up 3.0% but purchases actually posted a narrow -1.4% dip. Currently, the 10yr yield is at 1.646% and mortgages are slightly better than April 30th 2013 morning.
US Treasuries rise again this morning, pushing 10-year yields to the lowest level this year, after more disappointing data from Europe and the US. Today's US economic calendar has produced a mixed bag, making it likely the data will take a back seat to the FOMC meeting announcement that looms large tomorrow.
The Chicago PMI unexpectedly shrunk to 49 in April, the lowest level since September 2009, from 52.4 last month. The consumer confidence index rose to 68.1 in April; up from a reading of 61.9 in March, bringing the index back to its February level. Despite several brief spikes, the confidence index remains well below the 90 reading that indicates a healthy economy — a level it hasn't reached since the Great Recession began in December 2007. Currently, the 10yr yield is at 1.651% and mortgages are slightly better than April 29th, 2013 morning.
US Treasury prices are slowly improving this morning after a quiet weekend that included much of Asia being closed for the holiday. Treasury Yields ended last week at or near the lows of the year but April 29, 2013’s busy economic calendar will likely test the recent range.
Economic Data is heavy throughout the week leading up to Friday's Nonfarm payroll report.Key activity includes today's Personal Income and Outlays and Pending Home Sales, tomorrow's Case-Shiller HPI and Consumer Confidence report, Wednesday's ISM Manufacturing and FOMC Meeting Announcement and Thursday's International Trade and Productivity reports. So far, the data is not off to a strong start as consumer income of +0.2% was below +0.4% expectation. Currently, the 10yr yield is at 1.656% and mortgage rates are slightly better than April 26th ,2013 morning.
US Treasuries enjoy modest gains this morning after the 1st quarter GDP showed US economic growth slower than forecast. Growth of +2.5% was below consensus estimates of +3.1% and disposable income and savings were both lower than 4th quarter levels. This just adds one more element to the recent string of softer than expected data that supports the economy losing momentum.
Next week's calendar is rather eventful with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, and ends with the much anticipated April non-farm payrolls report. Currently, the 10yr yield is at 1.675% and mortgage rates are better than April 25th 2013 .
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